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India’s export sector in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience amid global trade disruptions, including U.S. tariffs imposed in late August. Despite challenges like elevated shipping costs, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating commodity prices, the country achieved steady growth in both merchandise and services exports. This analysis draws on data up to November 2025, providing insights into performance, sector breakdowns, trade deficits, and projections for 2026.
Overview of India’s Exports and Imports in 2025
In the January-November period of 2025, India’s merchandise exports reached approximately $407 billion, reflecting a robust performance despite external pressures. For the fiscal year segment from April to November 2025 (part of FY 2025-26), merchandise exports totaled $292.07 billion, up 2.62% from the previous year, while imports stood at $515.21 billion, rising 5.59%.
Combined merchandise and services exports for April-November hit $562.13 billion, a 5.43% increase.The overall trade deficit for April-November 2025 was $89 billion (after accounting for services surplus), with the merchandise deficit alone at $223.13 billion. November 2025 saw a positive turnaround, with total exports at $73.99 billion (up 15.52%) and a narrowed trade deficit of $6.64 billion. Key drivers included diversification into non-traditional markets and strong services exports, which offset some merchandise weaknesses.
Sector-Wise Table on Exports and Imports
Based on available data for 2025 (primarily cumulative April-November figures and November growth rates), the following table summarizes major sectors. Values are in USD billion. Note that full calendar-year sector breakdowns are not yet finalized, so estimates draw from government reports and trends. Major export sectors contributed to growth, while imports were driven by energy and raw materials.
| Sector | Exports (April-Nov 2025) | % Change YoY | Imports (April-Nov 2025) | % Change YoY | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering Goods | ~75 (est.) | +23.76% (Nov) | ~120 (est.) | +8% (est.) | Largest export sector; includes machinery, vehicles. Hit by tariffs but rebounded in Nov. |
| Petroleum Products | ~38 (est.) | +11.65% (Nov) | ~150 (est., crude oil) | +5% (est.) | India refines and exports; crude imports dominate deficit. |
| Gems & Jewellery | ~25 (est.) | +27.80% (Nov) | ~30 (est., incl. gold) | -60% (Nov gold drop) | Strong Nov growth; gold imports fell sharply, aiding deficit reduction. |
| Drugs & Pharmaceuticals | ~20 (est.) | +20.91% (Nov) | ~15 (est.) | +6% (est.) | Resilient amid global demand; minimal tariff impact. |
| Electronic Goods | ~18 (est.) | +38.96% (Nov) | ~60 (est.) | +10% (est.) | Fastest-growing export; high import dependence on components. |
| Chemicals | ~15 (est.) | +15% (est.) | ~40 (est.) | +7% (est.) | Organic/inorganic chemicals; steady growth. |
| Textiles & Apparel | ~12 (est.) | +10% (est.) | ~10 (est.) | +5% (est.) | Labor-intensive; affected by U.S. tariffs on apparel. |
| Agriculture & Processed Foods | ~10 (est.) | +12% (est.) | ~20 (est., incl. edible oils) | +4% (est.) | Includes rice, spices; weather impacts exports. |
| Others (incl. Iron Ore, Marine Products) | ~79 (non-petrol/non-gems est.) | +5.86% (non-petrol) | ~70 (est., coal/minerals) | -1.88% (Nov) | Diverse; coal imports declined in Nov. |
| Total Merchandise | 292.07 | +2.62% | 515.21 | +5.59% | Services add ~270B exports, offsetting deficits. |
*Estimates based on proportional shares from FY 2024-25 data and 2025 growth rates. Sources include Ministry of Commerce and PIB releases.
Trade Deficit Industry-Wise
India’s trade deficit in 2025 was largely driven by sectors with high import reliance and lower export values. The cumulative merchandise deficit for April-November reached $223.13 billion, up from $203.33 billion the previous year.
Key contributors:
- Petroleum/Oil: Major deficit driver (~$112 billion est. net deficit). India imported ~$150 billion in crude but exported only ~$38 billion in refined products. Price volatility and Russian oil discounts helped mitigate, but overall deficit widened 10-15% YoY.
- Gold & Precious Metals (Gems Sector): Contributed ~$5 billion deficit in Nov alone, though sharp 60% drop in gold imports narrowed the gap. Cumulative ~$20-25 billion deficit, influenced by festive demand.
- Electronics & Machinery: $42 billion deficit. Imports of components ($60 billion) far outpaced exports (~$18 billion), despite PLI scheme boosts.
- Coal & Minerals: ~$10 billion deficit; Nov imports fell, aiding overall reduction.
- Chemicals & Fertilizers: ~$25 billion deficit due to raw material imports.
- Edible Oils & Agriculture: ~$10 billion deficit; high vegetable oil imports.
Surplus sectors like pharmaceuticals (~$5 billion surplus) and services (IT/BPO, ~$134 billion surplus April-Nov) provided buffers. The record October deficit of $41.68 billion was fueled by gold/oil surges, but November’s $24.53 billion low reflected import moderation.
Overall, non-petroleum/non-gems deficit was ~$75.28 billion April-Nov, indicating structural issues in manufacturing imports.
Deep Analysis of Exports from India
India’s exports in 2025 totaled ~$450-470 billion in merchandise (est. full year), plus ~$350 billion in services, crossing $800 billion combined. Growth slowed to ~3-5% YoY due to U.S. tariffs (up to 50% on key goods like textiles/shrimp), impacting $86 billion in U.S.-bound exports (down 10% in Sep-Oct). However, diversification cushioned blows: exports to China rose 32% (April-Nov), UAE by 8%, and Europe by 5%.Strengths:
- Resilience in Key Sectors: Engineering goods led with ~26% share, driven by auto parts and machinery to Europe/Asia. Pharma maintained 5-6% growth, unaffected by tariffs. Electronics surged 39% in Nov, thanks to PLI incentives.
- Services Dominance: IT/services exports grew 15%, offsetting merchandise dips. Remittances and software exports hit record highs.
- Regional Shifts: Top states (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu) accounted for 60% of exports, with Gujarat’s share rising due to petroleum/refining. North East contributed minimally (~1%), but schemes like UNNATI aim to boost.
Challenges:
- Tariff Impacts: U.S. exports fell 8.6% in Oct; overall non-U.S. markets declined 12.5% due to high base and global slowdown.
- Import Dependence: High raw material imports (e.g., 70% of electronics components) eroded competitiveness.
- Global Factors: Shipping disruptions (Red Sea) added 20-30% costs; rupee depreciation (to 85/USD) aided exports but raised import bills.
- Inequality: Top 10 states hold 91% of exports, highlighting regional disparities.
Opportunities: FTAs with UK/Oman (signed 2025) and EU negotiations could add $50 billion by 2027. Green exports (renewables) grew 20%, aligning with net-zero markets (68% of exports to such countries).Predictions for 2026India’s exports are forecasted to grow 3-5% in 2026, reaching $850-900 billion (goods + services), per GTRI and UN estimates. UN projects 6.6% GDP growth in 2026, supporting export momentum despite U.S. tariffs denting 0.4% GDP.
Key predictions:
- Merchandise growth: 4-6%, driven by diversification to Africa/Latin America.
- Services: 8-10% rise, with IT resilient to outsourcing taxes.
- Total exports: $850 billion (FY25-26 est.), but calendar 2026 could hit $900 billion with new FTAs.
- Risks: Escalating tariffs or global recession could cap growth at 2%; positive FTAs (New Zealand) may boost 7%.
Top Exports to Focus on in 2026Based on projections, focus on high-growth, tariff-resilient sectors:
- Electronics & Mobiles: Projected $30-40 billion; PLI to drive assembly exports to Middle East/EU.
- Pharmaceuticals: $25-30 billion; generics to Africa/US.
- Gems & Jewellery: $30 billion; lab-grown diamonds to Europe.
- Engineering Goods/Autos: $120-130 billion; EVs to global markets.
- Spices & Specialty Foods: $20 billion; organic products to Asia-Pacific.
- Textiles: $15-20 billion; shift to sustainable fabrics.
- Renewables (Solar/Wind Components): Emerging at $10 billion.
- Chemicals: $20 billion; specialty chemicals.
- Marine Products: $8 billion; shrimp to non-US markets.
- IT Services: $200+ billion; AI/digital services.
Prioritize value-added, green products for sustainability.
Who is the Export Minister?
The current Minister of Commerce and Industry is Shri Piyush Goyal, who has held the position since May 2019. He oversees export policies, FTAs, and initiatives like PLI.Top Government Agencies
- Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT): Regulates trade policies, issues licenses.
- Export Promotion Councils (EPCs): Sector-specific (e.g., EEPC for engineering, Chemexcil for chemicals).
- Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO): Apex body for exporters.
- Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC): Provides insurance for export risks.
- India Trade Promotion Organisation (ITPO): Organizes trade fairs.
- Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA): For agri-exports.
- Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA): For seafood.
Schemes for Exporters in North East India
The North East Region (NER) has targeted schemes to boost exports (currently ~1% of national total):
- Export Development Fund for NER (EDF-NER): Funds infrastructure, marketing for NER exports (e.g., tea, handicrafts).
- Uttar Poorva Transformative Industrialization Scheme (UNNATI-2024): Incentives for industrial units in NER, including export-oriented ones.
- Agriculture and Processed Foods Export Promotion Scheme (APEDA FAS): Financial aid for agri-exporters in NER.
- Market Access Initiative (MAI): Supports trade fairs, buyer-seller meets for NER firms.
- Service Exports from India Scheme (SEIS): Incentives for service exporters, with NER focus.
- North East Export Promotional Meets (DGFT): B2B events to connect NER exporters globally.
These aim to leverage NER’s potential in organics, tourism, and handicrafts, with UNNATI offering tailored subsidies.In conclusion, 2025 marked a year of adaptation for India’s exports, setting a foundation for 2026 growth through diversification and innovation.
Sustained policy support will be key to achieving $1 trillion export targets by 2030.
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